Monday, July 25, 2005

funny realization

older bro (25) kel and I have always been painted as polar opposites.

rocker jock vs. more nerdy prep
music vs. bookworm

list can go pretty much on. . .

today though, he started making fun of the test scores of some of my students, and how he would torture them as he announced their scores.

we actually have similarities in our sense of humor. funny only realizing that now.

SONA

SONA: a little disappointing, but i didnt expect much.

It is called a State of the Nation, so how was the state stated?

Economic and Social Analysis: Poor.

1. Talking in absolutes is useless. 4 million jobs created. Never mind that official gov't data on employment has not been as credible lately -- why don't you talk about the unemployment rate? Talk about NET jobs created, and the increase in the size of the labor market. Talk about the change in unemployment rate. Guess why it won't be talked about?

2. "Economy poised for take-off." Big big assertion. As an optimist, I actually would agree with this IF, and this is a humongous IF, the fiscal situation is resolved. Recap: Watered-down sin tax law passed, TRO for the EVAT. Prognosis: not good.

3. Mention of government programs . Credibility problems. It's easy to mention programs implemented. Please prove that such programs are not tokenistic and do not have negligible impact in the big picture.

Political Analysis - Non-existent

1. Political structures are flawed. This isn't a hard assertion to buy, but funny how she mentions that present structures still allow for reform and yet later on mentions that the best of the efforts of the politicians may not be enough for this structure.

2. Criticism: Failure to characterize/mention flaws of the present day political system. If reform is proposed, foremost is an explanation of the present day flaws. Closest thing mentioned is the problem of a centralizes bureaucracy. Is this really the biggest problem? Big problems include: 1. A fucked-up Comelec (no mention) 2. Sources of campaign funds that cause the booty-capitalism that is counter-productive. (no mention)

No mention of issues/struggles/concerns about the debate on the Parliamentary system. But then I guess it would be premature to bring this up now.

No mention of current crisis of leadership on her part. I guess I don't expect her to be able to say anything productive on this point, but you know, the state of the nation is very much affected by her issues. Early on, there is an implicit request that we insulate reform activities from this problem. Is that possible? One wishes so.

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My bro has the screwy habit of coming into the room to play video games or watch dumb-TV (well 1/2 the time), when I start using the computer. It's irritating coz I realize that I truly get distracted and get diminished enjoyment when there is alternate media beside me. I don't mention it too much though, coz a. well, it's not my room, and b. he'll think that it's more of an issue that I want some privacy when I use the internet for whatever reasons. Well maybe it is, but that's only a small part, really. I wouldn't mind if he was behind me on the bed reading a book.

nuggets

Some of these I gathered from a nice conversation with Ria A. Last night. She was so 'on the mark' last night. Well, not too surprised actually, 'coz she's been in a contemplative mood. Enjoyed her recent blog entry about triathletes. Anyway, it seems that you're in funny trouble when you start collecting/listing senti songs for somebody and if you're intelligent, you know that it never is just sex

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I was happy with my off-beat half-crazy talk to HPAIR Sunday morning at Alpadis. Kulang kasi sa tulog! Plus the stimulation of 'first speaker' Edsel helped. Anyway, I want to blog a few of my messy notes, so that I have it for reference in the future. In case I have to give some real interesting talk again.

Main points:

We live in exciting times.
We actually can make a difference. We can rock.
You can compete. Your ideas have to count.
Are you interested in Harvard? or in Asian and International Relations?
Governments come and go. Ideas STICK.
Intellectual Capital. We are supposed to be already it, baby.
But, I am an optimist.


Anecdotes:
China. India.
"Pacific Century"
Ho Kwon Ping.
Read Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point.
HPAIR Singapore 2001
HPAIR HongKong 1999

Sunday, July 10, 2005

from a friend who thinks about political and economic issues

Hello, please share with others if you wish.

Some Convictions on the Current Political Issue
Karl Kendrick Chua
July 8, 2005


Thesis: The call for resignation must come with
accountability for our decisions and a plan for the
economy in case of a succession.


On resignation: Calling GMA to resign and giving it
the right reasons (moral and practical) are not
enough. Stopping here is only a short-term solution
and is bound to cause more problems in the medium- to
long-term. Those calling for her resignation must
accept and be accountable for the following:

1. The Vice-President must, without question, succeed
the President.

2. The choice of Noli de Castro as successor must have
gone through a very thorough cost-benefit analysis and
discernment. On the positive side, NDC is neither
connected nor is biased to the following: Marcos and
Martial Law, and EDSA 1, 2 and 3. He is also
non-political. His experience as newscaster,
reporter, and TV host, which has brought him to all
places in the country and to all kinds of people in
different social conditions may be an important asset
to the Presidency. While he is seen as less competent
for the position, some may argue that his good
advisers are enough to guide him. But woe to the
people who are naïve not to think that equally bad
advisers and blackmailers can influence him and ruin
him and the Presidency again. It is a deep tragedy to
think that the Presidency cannot be influenced badly.
It is a myth to think that good can win over evil.
This may be true at the end of times but not at the
present battle. Those calling for GMA's resignation
and thus NDC's succession can only do so after giving
the entire issue and its consequences much thought.
Otherwise, pushing for the short-term solution without
thinking of its gigantic consequences would only
plunge our country into deeper uncertainty and
turmoil.

If we agree to call for GMA's resignation, we must be
held accountable for the consequences, even the
worst-case scenario of an incompetent NDC as President
surrounded by useless advisers with greater vested
interest, an economic crisis similar to 1983-85, and
institutions plunging to total uselessness. If we
cannot accept accountability, we should preserve the
status quo.

On the economy: The economy must always be insulated
from the political mess. It must remain resilient and
inelastic to the political situation. Most
importantly, the fiscal and tax administrative reforms
must continue without delay to avert an economic
collapse already predicted by respectable economists.
In this light, those calling for the resignation of
GMA and thus the accession of Noli de Castro must
accept and support the reappointment of the economic
team to the Cabinet upon succession of NDC, most
especially Emilia Boncodin and Willy Parayno, without
delay. The reappointment of Parayno is paramount as
his departure will stall the most important reforms in
tax administration history.

On unity and leadership: Since so many people and
groups are declaring their stands, they are
nevertheless close to futileness without a clear
unified stand and a recognized leader. Without
Cardinal Sin and given a tired Cory Aquino, there is a
vacuum in moral and civil leadership. We need to
rally behind a leader. We must first identity the
most credible leader in civil and religious society.
Personally, I would rally behind the collective Jesuit
leadership and the collective decision of CBCP.
Second, we must swallow our own pride and be humble
before our chosen leader and his decision/stand. In
this case, we must discard our petty quarrels on the
minor details of the issue as well as everything
connected to the bigger issue which is not important,
urgent or critical. As a benchmark, let go of
everything that we are not willing to stake our life
to. The most important points that should unite us
are the following: Constitutional succession, fully
accepting accountability for the resignation of GMA,
the succession of NDC, the unpredictable scenario that
may arise in the new administration, and shielding the
economy from the political mess.

On the credibility of electoral institutions: Given
some consensus and evidence that the oligarchs have
ruled for generations and have drastically stunted
economic growth and holistic development of the
country, we must declare, among other things, that
beginning the next election, we must refuse to elect
any member of the political oligarchic clans to any
position in government no matter how competent and
sincere they are. It is only then that we will have a
government less vested with political interest and can
serve the people better. On a similar tune, it must
be obvious by now that we must also call for the
resignation or impeachment and conviction of the
obvious politicians in Comelec who have no reason to
be there in the first place.

On attitude towards the whole issue: It must be
realized and obvious by now that any form of stand,
debate, argument or complaint without a workable
alternative or solution must be considered useless and
a waste of resources. Problems without solutions add
to noise, confusion, and uncertainty.

On how to strengthen the new President's capacity to
rule: Here is an initial list of what civil and
religious society must do to allow the next President
to rule with maximum capacity.

1. Civil and religious society which have clamored for
GMA's resignation and consequently allowing NDC to
succeed must declare publicly and adhere strictly and
sincerely to this declaration: That NDC does not owe
civil and religious society anything, especially his
seat of power, and thus is free to run the country
without resorting to payments and honoring political
debts.

2. Civil and religious society may give advice to the
new President but should again declare publicly and
adhere strictly and sincerely that they will not push
for one of their members to be in the Cabinet or in
any other position in government. They must also
declare that NDC is free to appoint as he wishes
subject to the normal rules of appointment and tests
of competence and neutrality.

To summarize, there are two main points to remember
and stake our life to:

1. There is no other viable option but constitutional
succession and that we must fully accept and be
accountable for the resignation of GMA and the
succession of NDC, no matter what happens (even in the
worst-case scenario).

2. The economy must be insulated from the political
mess. Reappointing the economic team (unless a better
choice is determined) must be priority upon succession
and we must support it.

Friday, July 01, 2005

good news on the paper street

i spoke with my adviser yesterday, knowing that it would be make or break time. it almost turned out badly. i thought we were hurtling towards the dreaded conclusion of me facing no choice but to change topic for my paper.

This is a recreated conversation, ok.

"are you still working on the environment?"

me thinking: "what else would i be working on? i'm not going to change my topic! not this late in the game."

i showed him my new model. Quite radically changed my left-hand side variable. He bought it.

One problem: Missing variable on the right side. "If you don't put even a proxy in, it'll cause the omitted variable problem. (How could I miss this?!?)"

"Sir, that variable you're asking me to put in is the problem I had with in the first place. If I had it, then I wouldn't even bother changing my left-hand side."

"You don't need a perfect variable, just a proxy."

"My old LHS variable can be a proxy then?"

"You'll need yet another one though, so as to determine that this proxy is a good one."

curiouser and curiouser!

"Sir, that variable comes in three versions, so I can use those?"

"Ok then."

"Do I model these and come back with you with the output (i.e. regressions)"?

"No, write me already the analysis or I might not appreciate the regressions...Isulat mo na"

It's the go signal to write the paper. God, a horizon in sight.

E says that I can be done with this in as little as a week. And I believe him. HA.